Caseworkers in the child welfare (CW) sector use predictive decision-making algorithms built on risk assessment (RA) data to guide and support CW decisions. Researchers have highlighted that RAs can contain biased signals which flatten CW case complexities and that the algorithms may benefit from incorporating contextually rich case narratives, i.e. - casenotes written by caseworkers. To investigate this hypothesized improvement, we quantitatively deconstructed two commonly used RAs from a United States CW agency. We trained classifier models to compare the predictive validity of RAs with and without casenote narratives and applied computational text analysis on casenotes to highlight topics uncovered in the casenotes. Our study finds that common risk metrics used to assess families and build CWS predictive risk models (PRMs) are unable to predict discharge outcomes for children who are not reunified with their birth parent(s). We also find that although casenotes cannot predict discharge outcomes, they contain contextual case signals. Given the lack of predictive validity of RA scores and casenotes, we propose moving beyond quantitative risk assessments for public sector algorithms and towards using contextual sources of information such as narratives to study public sociotechnical systems.

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment and the outcome. We relax the requirement of knowing all confounders under desired treatment, which we refer to as Selective Confounding, to enable causal inference in diverse real-world scenarios. Our proposed scheme is designed to work in situations where multiple decision-makers with different policies are involved and where there is a re-evaluation mechanism after the initial decision to ensure consistency. These assumptions are more practical to fulfill compared to the availability of all confounders under all treatments. To tackle the issue of Selective Confounding, we propose the use of dual-treatment samples. These samples allow us to employ two-step procedures, such as Regression Adjustment or Doubly-Robust, to learn counterfactual predictors. We provide both theoretical error bounds and empirical evidence of the effectiveness of our proposed scheme using synthetic and real-world child placement data. Furthermore, we introduce three evaluation methods specifically tailored to assess the performance in child placement scenarios. By emphasizing transparency and interpretability, our approach aims to provide decision-makers with a valuable tool. The source code repository of this work is located at https://github.com/sohaib730/CausalML.

Sanmay Das, Professor, Computer Science, is conducting an exploratory study in the use of techniques from artificial intelligence (AI) to improve early screening and the delivery of targeted assistance to households that are at risk of future homelessness and child maltreatment. Das and the other members of the research team seek to develop novel methods for allocation of scarce housing support to at-risk households, taking into account considerations of both overall efficiency and fairness. This work will necessitate novel problem formulation and algorithm development in AI as well as creating new ethical methods for deciding on how to effectively deliver social services while considering the vast complexity of human behavior. Das is collaborating with Patrick J. Fowler, Associate Professor at Washington University in St. Louis, on this project. The researchers will explore the feasibility of using novel algorithmic techniques to inform societal decision-making on the allocation of scarce resources, with the specific goal of improving service system outcomes for both homelessness and child welfare.

The U.S. Child Welfare System (CWS) is charged with improving outcomes for foster youth; yet, they are overburdened and underfunded. To overcome this limitation, several states have turned towards algorithmic decision-making systems to reduce costs and determine better processes for improving CWS outcomes. Using a human-centered algorithmic design approach, we synthesize 50 peer-reviewed publications on computational systems used in CWS to assess how they were being developed, common characteristics of predictors used, as well as the target outcomes. We found that most of the literature has focused on risk assessment models but does not consider theoretical approaches (e.g., child-foster parent matching) nor the perspectives of caseworkers (e.g., case notes). Therefore, future algorithms should strive to be context-aware and theoretically robust by incorporating salient factors identified by past research. We provide the HCI community with research avenues for developing human-centered algorithms that redirect attention towards more equitable outcomes for CWS.

When tech entrepreneur David Heinmeier Hansson recently took to Twitter saying the Apple Card gave him a credit limit that was 20 times higher than his wife's, despite the fact that she had a higher credit score, it may have been the first major headline about algorithmic bias you read in your everyday life. It was not the first -- there have been major stories about potential algorithmic bias in child care and insurance -- and it won't be the last. The chief technology officer of project management software firm Basecamp, Heinmeier was not the only tech figure speaking out about algorithmic bias and the Apple Card. In fact, Apple's own co-founder Steve Wozniak had a similar experience. Presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren even got in on the action, bashing Apple and Goldman, and regulators said they are launching a probe.

This article is part of a series on the Comprehensive Child Welfare Information System (CCWIS), which states can build with federal funding help to replace an antiquated data and management process. As another barrier to bypass when it comes to adopting new technology for the Comprehensive Child Welfare Information System (CCWIS) legislation and Family First Prevention Services Act, let's take a moment to consider the role of algorithms and artificial intelligence (AI) in child welfare. As a statistics professor there is nothing that drives me more bonkers than hearing people inflate -- if not fictionalize -- the power of their analysis. And quite honestly, from what I have heard from top-level administrators I have met with in recent months, I have a fear too many states are being misguided into thinking they can buy a CCWIS system equipped with some pre-programmed miraculous predictive abilities guaranteeing each youth's safe placement. If you have been reading this series of articles, as you probably have surmised, I think this accountability-driven change opportunity should be capitalized on in order to exceed your wildest dreams when it comes to caring for kids.